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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008 Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008 Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008 How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008 Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008 Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008 Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008 What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008 A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008 Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008 Testing Matters - November 13, 2008 An Easy Yet Important Quick Quad Puzzler - November 20, 2008 Some Quick Quad Mathematics - November 27, 2008 Barona Improves its Video Poker - December 4, 2008 An Interesting Quick Quads Puzzle - December 11, 2008 Shirley Plays Suduku - December 18, 2008 How Often Does One Time in 360 Occur? - December 25, 2008 Earning a Free Cruise - January 1, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on January 8, 2009! |
A Letter from a Non-Believer - Part I of IIAlong with next week’s column, this originally ran in March 2000 Casino Player. Mr. Dancer: "I play regularly at (casino names withheld) and I lose. I do not believe the machines could be random. Looking around when the casino is full and seeing no flashing lights, you don't have to be an Einstein to know that the machines are controlled totally by the casino and not random. PLEASE START PRINTING THE TRUTH! I like your writing, but you have to stop being bought off by the casinos.
A case in point. In one issue you say that your results over the last half hour have nothing to with your results over the next half hour and later in the same issue you say a particular hand occurs every 16,000 hands. Obviously this is inconsistent and the machines cannot be random." I get letters like this regularly --- sometimes with a lot more venom. I'll do what I can to address the questions raised, but the fact is that most people who write with this much anger will not be convinced by anything I say. First, let's look at the difference between RANDOMNESS and TIGHTNESS. Assume you have a completely fair 6-sided die, with its faces numbered from 1 to 6. Let's also assume we sign up for a game that we pay a dollar to roll the die. If we roll a 1,2,3,4 or 5 we lose. If we roll a 6 we are paid $4, in addition to getting our dollar back. Notice that our game is completely random, but we can make predictions about it. We don't know what the next 6 rolls will bring, but we know pretty well what the next 6,000,000 will bring! This game has a lot of short run variability and long run stability. Also, notice that you will lose big time! You will lose $500 in the 500 non-winning hands. You will win $400 on the 100 times you roll a 6. (Don't confuse getting your money back with a win. It's not the same thing at all!) Over the course of the 600 rolls, you will actually lose $100. Totally random --- but a real sucker bet. If the game as described doesn't sound random to you, perhaps you are using the word "random" differently than I am. But I am using it the way most mathematicians would. Random doesn't necessarily mean totally unpredictable, although it can that meaning in some contexts. Random doesn't mean you have a 50-50 chance, although it can mean that is some contexts. Let's go back to throwing our die. Let's say the die lands on 6 seven times in the first twenty. This isn't a real likely result. It's a once in 39 times "lucky streak". Does this "lucky streak" tell us anything about whether this is a good bet or a sucker bet? I say no. Whether or not we won or lost over the last twenty rolls means very little. We have enough information to know that this is not a smart game to play. Continued next week --- when the discussion will center on video poker, not dice. Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
The content on this site is copyright 2006 - 2008, Video Poker 365. All Rights Reserved. No unauthorized duplication. |
Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature - Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up - Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 You Use To Be Such a Cheapskate - August 31, 2008 Is This a Good Promotion? Part 1 - September 7, 2008 Is This a Good Video Poker Promotion? Part 2 - September 14, 2008 More Video Poker Fallacies - September 21, 2008 Not All Proposals Should be Accepted - September 28, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 1 of 2 - October 5, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 2 - October 12, 2008 Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part 1 of 2 - October 19, 2008 Predicting Future Video Poker Reulsts - Part 2 of 2 - October 26, 2008 Moving Up in Denomination - Part 1 of 2 - November 2, 2008 Moving Up in Video Poker Denomination - Part 2 of 2 - November 9, 2008 A Letter from a Non-Believer - Part 1 of 2 - November 16, 2008 A Letter Froma VP Non-Believer - Part 2 of 2 - November 23, 2008 If You're Going to Steal From Me... - November 30, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 1 of 2 - December 7, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 2 of 2 - December 14, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 1 of 2 - December 21, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 2 of 2 - December 28, 2008 Shirley Wins a Cruise - January 4, 2009 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday January 11, 2009. |
