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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008 Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008 Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008 How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008 Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008 Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008 Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008 What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008 A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008 Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008 Testing Matters - November 13, 2008 An Easy Yet Important Quick Quad Puzzler - November 20, 2008 Some Quick Quad Mathematics - November 27, 2008 Barona Improves its Video Poker - December 4, 2008 An Interesting Quick Quads Puzzle - December 11, 2008 Shirley Plays Suduku - December 18, 2008 How Often Does One Time in 360 Occur? - December 25, 2008 Earning a Free Cruise - January 1, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on January 8, 2009! |
Another Look at Changing MachinesLet’s say you’ve been playing your favorite game, $1 Double Double Bonus, and for the last half hour you’ve had nothing good happen. Two full houses and nothing at all higher than that, and you’re stuck $600. What do you do? Many people change machines at this point (or even before!)
You probably know that I wouldn’t change machines at this point (or even been playing Double Double Bonus to start with!) I’ve written dozens of times that changing machines doesn’t matter at all. The best way to predict what’s going to happen next is by denomination, pay schedule, slot club, and promotions. I regularly get emails from people telling me that even though they respect me as a writer, and that I frequently sound like I know what I’m talking about, they know from experience that changing machines usually works for the better. Not always, of course, but usually. And they’re going to trust their experience more than my theories. It may surprise you to know that I believe these people are correct! In situations like I outlined, changing machines usually improves the results. At the same time, I stand by my earlier theory that changing machines doesn’t change anything relevant. Likely the previous paragraph sounds like double talk to you. I seem to be saying that things will both get better and at the same time stay the same. (I’m definitely NOT saying that, but on first reading it can appear to be that way.) But there is an easy-to-understand explanation that should clear everything up. Your results over a half-hour period are random. Yes there’s a MEAN result, which means an average, but whether you’re above the mean or below the mean is largely random. If you’re a good player, you’re mean will be higher than if you’re a bad one, but no matter who you are, the actual results over a half-hour period are random. We specified that you lost $600 in the past half hour. For a $1 player, that’s considerably worse than average. The best prediction for the next half hour will be an average score --- which is MUCH BETTER than losing $600. In other words, changing machines after a terrible score usually leads to a better score over the next half hour. At the same time, however, staying on the same machine will ALSO usually lead to a better score. Changing machines has nothing to do with your score getting better. It’s all random. But since your last score was so far negative, your next score will likely be better than that. This phenomenon is called “regression to the mean” by statisticians. It says that when results are random, if we have a better-than-average score our next one will likely be lower and if we have a worse-than-average score or next one will likely be higher. This is basic mathematics. It has nothing at all to do with changing machines. At the same time, I always feel obliged to say that while changing machines doesn’t help you on average, neither does it hurt you on average. So if it floats your boat to change machines, go for it! As for me, I’ll stay on the one I started on. Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
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Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature - Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up - Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 You Use To Be Such a Cheapskate - August 31, 2008 Is This a Good Promotion? Part 1 - September 7, 2008 Is This a Good Video Poker Promotion? Part 2 - September 14, 2008 More Video Poker Fallacies - September 21, 2008 Not All Proposals Should be Accepted - September 28, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 1 of 2 - October 5, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 2 - October 12, 2008 Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part 1 of 2 - October 19, 2008 Predicting Future Video Poker Reulsts - Part 2 of 2 - October 26, 2008 Moving Up in Denomination - Part 1 of 2 - November 2, 2008 Moving Up in Video Poker Denomination - Part 2 of 2 - November 9, 2008 A Letter from a Non-Believer - Part 1 of 2 - November 16, 2008 A Letter Froma VP Non-Believer - Part 2 of 2 - November 23, 2008 If You're Going to Steal From Me... - November 30, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 1 of 2 - December 7, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 2 of 2 - December 14, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 1 of 2 - December 21, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 2 of 2 - December 28, 2008 Shirley Wins a Cruise - January 4, 2009 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday January 11, 2009. |
