Let’s say you’ve been playing your favorite game, $1 Double Double Bonus, and for the last half hour you’ve had nothing good happen. Two full houses and nothing at all higher than that, and you’re stuck $600. What do you do? Many people change machines at this point (or even before!)
You probably know that I wouldn’t change machines at this point (or even been playing Double Double Bonus to start with!) I’ve written dozens of times that changing machines doesn’t matter at all. The best way to predict what’s going to happen next is by denomination, pay schedule, slot club, and promotions.
I regularly get emails from people telling me that even though they respect me as a writer, and that I frequently sound like I know what I’m talking about, they know from experience that changing machines usually works for the better. Not always, of course, but usually. And they’re going to trust their experience more than my theories.
It may surprise you to know that I believe these people are correct! In situations like I outlined, changing machines usually improves the results. At the same time, I stand by my earlier theory that changing machines doesn’t change anything relevant.
Likely the previous paragraph sounds like double talk to you. I seem to be saying that things will both get better and at the same time stay the same. (I’m definitely NOT saying that, but on first reading it can appear to be that way.) But there is an easy-to-understand explanation that should clear everything up.
Your results over a half-hour period are random. Yes there’s a MEAN result, which means an average, but whether you’re above the mean or below the mean is largely random. If you’re a good player, you’re mean will be higher than if you’re a bad one, but no matter who you are, the actual results over a half-hour period are random.
We specified that you lost $600 in the past half hour. For a $1 player, that’s considerably worse than average. The best prediction for the next half hour will be an average score --- which is MUCH BETTER than losing $600.
In other words, changing machines after a terrible score usually leads to a better score over the next half hour. At the same time, however, staying on the same machine will ALSO usually lead to a better score.
Changing machines has nothing to do with your score getting better. It’s all random. But since your last score was so far negative, your next score will likely be better than that.
This phenomenon is called “regression to the mean” by statisticians. It says that when results are random, if we have a better-than-average score our next one will likely be lower and if we have a worse-than-average score or next one will likely be higher.
This is basic mathematics. It has nothing at all to do with changing machines.
At the same time, I always feel obliged to say that while changing machines doesn’t help you on average, neither does it hurt you on average. So if it floats your boat to change machines, go for it! As for me, I’ll stay on the one I started on.
Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
