Video Poker Odds - Expected Return

Expected return, in video poker and any other gambling game, is the long term result of your decisions. In other words, it's the payback percentage of the machine over an extended period of time. In video poker, expected return is calculated using the payouts for specific hands.

Correct video poker strategy involves choosing the hold/discard options that give you the best long term expected return. For example, suppose you're dealt a hand that includes four cards to a flush and also includes four cards to a straight. Do you draw to the straight or do you draw to the flush?

An Example of How Expected Return Determines Correct Strategy

If you're playing 9/6 Jacks or Better, you're getting paid 6 for 1 for the flush and 4 for 1 for the straight. If you have four cards to a flush in your hand, there are nine cards out of 47 cards left in the deck which can complete your hand, or 9/47. (There are 13 cards of each suit, and you already have four of them.) So your chances of winning 6 for 1 is 9/47.

On the other hand, if you have an outside straight draw, there are eight cards out of 47 which can complete your hand and win you 4 for 1. So the probability of completing your hand and winning 4 for 1 is 8/47.

The expected return for each situation is that amount you're getting paid off multiplied by the odds of getting paid.

For the flush draw, the expected return is 9/47 X 6, or 115%.
For the straight draw, the expected return is 8/47 X 4, or 68%.

Obviously the correct strategy choice in this situation is clear. The correct strategy for each hand situation involves calculating the highest expected return for each of the 32 different ways you can play your hand and playing according to the way that offers the highest expected return.

Click here to visit the Jacks or Better Pay Tables page.

You might also be interested in reading our article about free video poker and our article about no download video poker.

This page was written on April 15, 2006 and was modified on September 18, 2007.

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