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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008 Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008 Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008 How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008 Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008 Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008 Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008 What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008 A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008 Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008 Testing Matters - November 13, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on November 20, 2008! |
Learning from a Horse HandicapperWhat does horse handicapping have to do with video poker? At first blush, it’s a stretch to find ANYTHING in common, except they are both on a short list of games found in a casino that are beatable by a smart player. (Horse racing isn’t typically done AT the casino, although sometimes casinos are built around racetracks, but in many jurisdictions you can bet on horse races held elsewhere.)
A case can be made that I’m not a smart horse player. I do, however, have a winning record. I’ve made one $10 bet in my life in the Kentucky Derby in 1994. I bet on Strode’s Creek to show. I’m not sure why. I think I might have heard something on the radio. That means I’d collect if the horse came in first, second, or third. The horse came in second, so I’ve collected on every horse racing bet I’ve ever made. The horse paid $6 to show, which meant my profit was $20. I’m so smart! (I strongly believe that when I eventually die some day, my perfect horse betting record will still be intact. I do not anticipate making another bet on horses ever. But “ever” is a long time, so who knows?) I read a quote by Steven Crist, both a horse handicapper and the publisher of “The Daily Racing Form.” According to Crist : “The issue is not which horse in the race is the most likely winner, but which horse or horses are offering odds that exceed their actual chances of victory . . . This may sound elementary, and many players may think that they are following this principle, but few actually do. Under this mindset, everything but the odds fades from view. There is no such thing as “liking” a horse to win a race, only an attractive discrepancy between his chances and his price.” It appears obvious to me that Crist’s advice is valid --- rather like a “principle of investing.” I started to wonder whether there’s any way to apply this to video poker. When you have two or more different plays at video poker, such as from 8h 8s 9d Tc Jh, Crist’s rule says to pick the play with the highest Expected Value (EV). Since this is already part of the mindset of most competent video poker players, Crist’s advice appears redundant here. When I’ve given a hand like this in one of my classes, I’ve sometimes had people say something like, “when you hold 89TJ, there are eight chances for success --- namely four sevens and four queens. But when you hold the pair of eights there are only two chances to get another eight. Since eight chances are better than two, I’ll go with the straight.” This is wrong on many levels, but I’ve heard this almost verbatim more than a dozen times, it seems appropriate to address it here. When you draw one card to 89TJ, there are indeed eight chances to complete the straight --- out of the 47 possible draws you have. 8/47 means you have a 17% chance for success. Of course there are also 3/47 (6.4%) chances of drawing another jack and getting your money back. That gives us some non-zero score 23.4% of the time. (Today I’m limiting the discussion to games without wild cards where you get your money back for a pair of jacks, queens, kings, and aces. There are dozens of different games that meet these criteria in every casino.) When you draw three cards to the pair of eights, there are actually 16,215 different draws you can make. It turns out that you’re going to end up with nothing at all 71% of the time, two pair 16% of the time, 3-of-a-kind 11% of the time, a full house 1% of the time and 4-of-a-kind about a quarter of 1%. So going with the pair, it turns out that there is a 29% chance of getting at least your money back. This is better than the 23.4% chance at getting something when you go for the straight. What does this tell us? These numbers add up to a discussion of the most likely winner, and according to Crist, this is not particularly relevant. What we need to include in this discussion is how much do we get paid when each of these events come in? This “how much do we get paid” is equivalent to what he calls “odds.” How much we get paid varies rather widely from game to game. For the five coin $1 player, in all the games we are considering the pair of jacks pays $5. That’s a constant. But two pair can receive $5 or $10. 3-of-a-kinds usually return $15, but it can return $10. Straights give you $20 or $25. Full houses return $30, $35, $40, $45, or $50. 4-of-a-kinds receive $125, $250, or occasionally other numbers. I suppose it’s possible to figure out which is the better play in your head, but you’d have to be much smarter than me to do so. Using computer software, such as “Video Poker for Winners,” this is an easy calculation. Not surprisingly, the correct answer to “which way should we play the hand” depends on the pay schedule, although which part of the pay schedule frequently is a surprise. It turns out that when two pair returns $5, you should go for the straight. When two pair returns $10, you should hold the pair. Once you learn this rule, this is definitely something easily remembered, at least to many. Did we need Steven Crist’s insight to solve this problem? No, probably not. But when smart people from different disciplines end up with the same answer, it gives us more confidence that our answer is correct. Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
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Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature - Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up - Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 You Use To Be Such a Cheapskate - August 31, 2008 Is This a Good Promotion? Part 1 - September 7, 2008 Is This a Good Video Poker Promotion? Part 2 - September 14, 2008 More Video Poker Fallacies - September 21, 2008 Not All Proposals Should be Accepted - September 28, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 1 of 2 - October 5, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 2 - October 12, 2008 Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part 1 of 2 - October 19, 2008 Predicting Future Video Poker Reulsts - Part 2 of 2 - October 26, 2008 Moving Up in Denomination - Part 1 of 2 - November 2, 2008 Moving Up in Video Poker Denomination - Part 2 of 2 - November 9, 2008 A Letter from a Non-Believer - Part 1 of 2 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday November 23, 2008. |
