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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on September 4, 2008! |
This article was originally published in October 1998 in Casino Player. Treasure Island (called “TI” now) offers nowhere near 0.67% in its slot club, but the overall discussion of Break Even Points is valid. Video Poker ProgressivesI was staying at Treasure Island. I was on my way up to my room one night and I glanced at a bank of dollar 8-5 jacks or better progressive. The meter was at $7,000. A few tourists were playing it. When I came downstairs the next morning, the meter was at $9,500 and every seat was taken. After breakfast, the meter stood at a little over $4,000 and not a player was to be found. What’s going on? The most common form of a progressive adds money to the value of the royal flush. Although any amount can be added to the meter, let’s assume we have a 1% meter. That is, 1% of every bet is added to the progressive. On a dollar machine, each max-coin bet of $5 adds 5¢ to the meter. Frequently many games feed the same meter, so with each machine adding 5¢ per play, the meter can progress fairly rapidly. How do you figure the value of a progressive game? To start with, you need to know the value of the underlying game. In this case, 8-5 jacks or better is worth 97.3% when the meter is reset to $4,000. As the meter increases, so does the value of the game. Each $1000 of additional meter value adds .55% to that total. In the earlier example, a meter reading of $7,000 was worth 97.30% + 3 (.55%) = 98.95%. Although this game is now quite a bit better than it would be with a meter of $4,000, it is still not attractive to those who insist upon having the advantage before they play. At $9,500, the meter was up another $2,500, which adds 2½ x .55% = 1.38%. Added to the original 98.95% we get 100.33%. This in and of itself is not very attractive to good players, but when you add Treasure Island’s .67% cash from their slot club you get a 101% game. For dollar players, this is attractive enough, which is why every seat was taken. Many players carry cellular phones and have informal deals with other players. You tell me when you find a good deal and I’ll tell you when I find one. When the royal was finally hit, everyone cashed out and found better things to do. The game was worth the original 97.3%, and even the .67% cash back didn’t make the game interesting to knowledgeable players. Eventually enough unknowledgeable players will play the game so the meter is built up enough to be attractive again. Playing progressives is more difficult than playing non-progressives. The reason for this is that the strategy keeps changing as the meter increases. Let’s take 9-6 dollar jacks progressive as an example, and consider the following hand: Kh Qh Jh Js 3d. With the royal at $4,000, the correct play is to hold the pair of jacks. In fact it is the best play by 24¢. But with the royal at $4,260 or above, the correct play changes to holding KQJ. The chance of hitting a royal, starting from KQJ, didn’t change. It was 1 chance in 1,081 both times. But the 1 in 1081 chance at the extra $260 adds 24¢ to the value of holding KQJ. That is why the correct play changes at this point. So what’s the big deal? It’s not hard to learn to change this one play if the value of the royal goes up to $4,260. Now consider these hands, the first of which we have already seen:
The abbreviation BEP stands for “Break Even Point,” which is the value of the royal at which the two plays are equivalent. I first saw its use in Stanford Wong’s Professional Video Poker. Wong’s 10-year-old book gives the complete and accurate strategy for playing 8-5 jacks or better progressive game. These five hands are identical, except for the value of the fifth card. Let’s take the last one for example. When we start from KQJ, we’d like to get the royal. But some of the value from that starting position comes from getting high pairs, straights, flushes, etc. We started with 13 hearts in the deck, and we’re considering hands which contain KQJ, so that means we have 10 of them left. When this is true, we will get a flush on 43 out of 1081 times. But if we throw away a low heart, as we are doing in the last example, we now have only 9 hearts left in the deck. We are now going to end up with a flush only 34 times out of 1081. The lowers (underlined) the value of starting with KQJ by 25¢, and it raises (underlined) the value of the royal necessary to make up for it. The second, third and fourth hands are affected by a decreased number of possible straights. So it’s five different BEP numbers when we start from a suited KQJ versus a high pair. It’s five additional numbers when we start from QJT, another five for KQT, another four for AKQ, and another three for AKT. That’s 22 different BEPs, and we’ve only looked at 3-card royals versus a high pair. Including all possibilities means hundreds of different BEPs to consider. Considering all of these cases is unwieldy. Simplifying the list is possible, but you give up accuracy when you simplify. On a practical basis, most pros value speed over accuracy when the progressive is high, so most pros use a highly simplified list. Some professional teams have a complete list of simplified BEPs for over a dozen different games. Some of these strategies are reasonably accurate, and some are not. But you do not need to worry about how accurate they are, because you will never see them. At the current time, there are no accurate strategies for dealing with progressives on the market --- with the exception of Wong’s book that deals strictly with 8-5 jacks or better. If you want to progressives well, you have to work it out for yourself. It’s not difficult, but it is tedious. You need the help of a computer program. I use Video Poker Tutor, but there are others that will work. When you play progressives, get ready for bigger swings than you are otherwise used to having. Most of the games where progressives exist are games that have a very poor return most of the time. And if someone else hits the royal, you will have poor results. And let’s face it, usually someone else will hit the royal. Compare dollar 9-6 jacks or better with a royal of $4,000 with an 8-5 jacks game with a royal of $8,100. The games each return 99.54% when played well. But the 8-5 game has much bigger ups and downs --- both psychological and financial. I don’t recommend either game unless you’re receiving significant value from the slot club, but generally speaking when games are equal, the wise person prefers the one which is less streaky --- i.e. the 9-6 game in this case. But if we assume the 9-6 game will remain with a royal at $4,000 and the 8-5 game will have it’s royal continue to grow, now the 8-5 game is to be preferred. This isn’t a contradiction. When one of the games has a progressive and the other one doesn’t, the games are no longer equal. That’s it for this month. In the mean time, go out and hit a royal flush. Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
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Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature -- Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up -- Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday August 31, 2008. |
