|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers:
Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Next Dancer's Answers column coming on May 8, 2008! |
Video Poker Questions and AnswersAuthor's Note: This article and the one that will run next week were originally published as one article in Casino Player in September 1997 Answers to Very Common Video Poker Questionsby Bob Dancer May 4, 2008
How do you know when to quit gambling for the day?This is a big one. Everybody wants to know when the winning has ended, and the losing is about to start. Everyone wants to know how to choose just the right time to quit playing. Guess what? So do I! Unfortunately, I don’t have a clue when that time is. I can tell you when you should have quit a half hour ago, but there’s no way to tell what the next half hour holds. Every hand at video poker is independent of those before it, so there is no way to say with any degree of accuracy “I’ve lost eight hands in a row. Therefore, the next four hands will be . . . “ Or “This machine has been paying off all night. I can’t afford to go to bed just yet.” In both of these cases, the best prediction for the future is that the order that the cards appear will be random. Let’s assume you are playing 10-7 double bonus for dollars. (“10-7” means that for each coin played you will receive 10 coins back if you get a full house, and 7 coins back if you get a flush). This game, if played perfectly, returns about 100.17%. Let’s also assume you play 600 hands per hour, and that you play perfectly. (The first assumption is reasonable; a lot of people play faster than 600 hands per hour. The second is heroic; very few people play the game even close to perfectly. That’s why dozens of casinos offer this beatable schedule.) Under these assumptions, the best prediction of your result for the next hour is $5.10 profit. That is, playing 600 hands at $5 per hand will result in your gambling $3,000 during that hour, and the machine will return, on average, $3005.10 ($3,000 x 100.17%). If you haven’t hit a royal all year, your expected win during the next hour is $5.10. If you have already hit four royals since last Tuesday, your expected win during the next hour is $5.10. If you have had steak and eggs for breakfast, your expected win during the next hour is $5.10. You have a memory of your recent results. The machine does not, and the expected result, which represents an average, is the most valuable predictor of the future. “Expected result”, and “actual result”, are very different things, however, and many people confuse the concepts. Your actual result during many of your hour-long sessions of dollar play on a 10-7 double bonus machine will be in the minus $600 range. Occasionally, you’ll hit four aces and a royal flush in the same hour and your actual result will be a win of $5,000 or so. Trust me, you’ll have a lot more losing hours than winning hours, which is why making a decision about whether or not to continue based on what’s just happened (the actual result) might be unwise. So, is there anything that can help you decide when to quit? Yes. The answers to practical questions like: Are you tired? Are you hungry? Are you frustrated about your score and thus making errors in judgment? Is there someone next to you with an annoying habit? Did you have too much alcohol? The machine is always at its best. You’re not. You versus the machine is a fair match during your best hours, but you are hopelessly outclassed the rest of the time. Playing during these “less-than-best” hours is an expensive mistake. When should I change machines?Changing machines because you are losing doesn’t change anything relevant, neither for better or worse. So if it makes you feel better, go ahead and switch to the machine down the row. I can give you one very good reason to change. Frequently machines have sticky buttons. If you encounter one, switch as soon as you can. If you don’t, you’ll eventually face the situation of what to do when you should have been paid for three of a kind, but you didn’t get paid for a low pair because a card became “un-held”. If you pursue it with management, you’ll probably get your due, but you’ll waste fifteen minutes in the process. But if you decide to let it go, you’re playing a machine with an unbeatable advantage. Neither solution is satisfying. Change machines.
The content on this site is copyright 2006 - 2008, Video Poker 365. All Rights Reserved. No unauthorized duplication.
|
Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday May 18, 2008. |
Counting
seminars and speaking engagements at which I’ve appeared, I’ve taught
several thousand students how to play video poker. During the question
and answer period, invariably the same questions wind up being asked. If
my students ask the same questions over and over again, I think it’s
safe to assume that my readers would probably ask them, too, if given
the chance. So here’s the chance. I’ll ask the questions for you, and
answer them too.