This article originally ran in November 1999 in Casino Player

"Please tell me, Mr. Dancer," the letter asked, "if I did the right thing. I come to Las Vegas four times a year. I usually play Double Double Bonus, and I usually lose. I know you say that the house has a big edge on this game, and my results certainly bear that out, but I REALLY like the game.

"Anyway, last May I could do no wrong. Within the first two hours, I hit two royal flushes for 4 grand each, four threes with a kicker for $800, and four aces without a kicker for another $800. I even hit a $250 straight flush just for spite. I was up $8,400 in no time at all!

"So I decided to quit! I figured I had beaten the odds for this trip, so why press my luck? So I stopped cold turkey. I didn't invest another dime for the next two days. Looking back, I wonder if my good luck would have continued had I kept playing. How can you ever know for sure?"

Actually, I made this letter up. I even put in the "Mr. Dancer" bit at the front, instead of "Bob", just to . . . well, I don't know. I think I'll maybe write the next fake letter to "Mr. Dancer, SIR."

But even though the actual wording in the letter was artificial, I've received dozens of letters on this general subject. When to quit gambling for the day or for the trip is something everybody struggles with. So let's talk about it.

The first question we need to ask is "why are we gambling?" To start with, we'll talk about me. (Rather self-centered today, aren't I?) I gamble for profit. I never make a bet unless I have the edge. You will never see me playing Double Double Bonus (barring a very unusual progressive, promotion or slot club). Gambling for recreational purposes is not at all what I am about. I gamble to WIN!

For somebody like me, today's score is ABSOLUTELY IRRELEVANT to the question of when to stop playing. I know I will play hundreds of hours this year, hundreds of hours next year and hundreds more in the future. I will have good days and bad days. I will hit royals. I will have ugly dry spells. My gambling decisions are based upon my CALCULATION of what WILL HAPPEN, not my EXPERIENCE of what DID HAPPEN. If I calculate this game is worth $30 per hour in the long run, and that is a large enough amount considering what else is available at the current time, neither winning nor losing $5,000 will affect that calculation. They are just bumps in the road. How I make these calculations is a subject for another article --- why not next month? But the important thing to remember this month is that these calculations are made BEFOREHAND. These calculations are made for the LONG RUN. Results in the SHORT RUN (i.e. the last few hours) have NOTHING TO DO with whether your long run calculation is accurate.

Now let's talk about the writer of the letter. This is a player used to losing. Dollar Double Double Bonus can be VERY expensive. Being down $4,000 or more over a 3-day trip would not be that unusual. To be sure, being up $8,400 will likely pay for the next several trips. Does this make it a good reason to stop?

I don't think so. I don't see any big advantage of standing around for two days just so you can come back and play in three months. If his idea of fun is to play Double Double, then he should PLAY Double Double.

As a Las Vegas resident, I know of many recreational activities to do here. I know about touring Hoover Dam, seeing how Ethel M candy is made, or going up to the top of the Stratosphere tower and seeing the city. Any of these can be diverting --- IF you are in the mood. And with the free Masquerade show at the Rio, the fountains in front of Bellagio, singing gondoliers at the Venetian, pirate battles, roller coasters and a whole slew of other things, there more non-gambling things to enjoy in Vegas than ever before. Except: I know a lot of people who spend a lot of hours daydreaming about their next Vegas trip. I don't know anybody who dreams about taking a tour of Hoover Dam. [By the way, DO take the tour. And take the "hard hat" tour, costing $25 or so for two hours. It is VERY interesting.]

It makes a lot of sense to me to cut yourself off from playing when you have lost more than is comfortable. This is an intelligent way to react to an adverse circumstance. But to cut yourself off because you have won? That doesn't make much sense to me.

"Quit while you're ahead" is common advice given to people. That might make some sense if you were really going to quit forever. But quitting today so you can come back to do the exact same thing three months later is hardly quitting. "Quit while you're ahead" is advice given by people who truly have no idea of how to win at gambling. A winning gambler, who has just won a lot, is much more likely to say, "I still have the advantage. Now is the time to play."

But there is a group of people who should quit under the circumstances outlined in the letter. There are people who receive considerable pleasure from telling everybody "back home" about whatever happened in Las Vegas. For people like this, go ahead and stop. You now have a GREAT story! Why ruin it by losing a few thousand before you go home? You should be able to milk this story FOR YEARS. And you can tell this story to 200 of your closest friends! This was the time that you really kicked the casinos in the butt! Boy! Were those casinos glad when you left town!

Of course, the stories told by many of these people [certainly not me or you!] tend to be exaggerated anyway. You only need to quit playing if you are one of those storytellers who MUST tell the truth! If you don't mind being a little loose on your facts that nobody will be able to check up on anyway, go ahead and keep playing and TELL them you quit!

You can even assure everybody that you were smart enough to know when to quit! Tell them you quit because YOU KNEW that it was going to go downhill from then on! Now YOU KNOW and I KNOW that there's no way in the world that anybody can possibly know what would have happened had you kept playing. The only way to know for sure is to keep playing. But maybe THEY don't know that you don't know that! It's worth a try!

Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.