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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008 Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008 Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008 How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008 Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008 Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008 Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008 What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008 A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008 Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008 Testing Matters - November 13, 2008 An Easy Yet Important Quick Quad Puzzler - November 20, 2008 Some Quick Quad Mathematics - November 27, 2008 Barona Improves its Video Poker - December 4, 2008 An Interesting Quick Quads Puzzle - December 11, 2008 Shirley Plays Suduku - December 18, 2008 How Often Does One Time in 360 Occur? - December 25, 2008 Earning a Free Cruise - January 1, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on January 8, 2009! |
What is a Royal Flush Cycle?You’ve probably heard that royal flushes come about once every 40,000 hands. That number is approximately correct for 9/6 Jacks or Better (40,390 hands) and 8/5 Bonus Poker (40,233 hands), assuming correct strategy. It is considerably off for 9/7 Double Bonus (48,035 hands).
Even though it’s a simplification, many players use the 40,000 hands as a royal flush cycle for all games. The reason the length of the cycle is different from game to game is because of the strategy. When you are dealt Ah Kh Qh 5h 3d, for example, in Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker you hold ‘AKQ’. In 9/7 Bonus Poker, you hold ‘AKQ5’ because flushes return 7-for-1 in that game. From ‘AKQ’, it’s 1080-to-1 against getting a royal flush on this hand. Slim odds, to be sure, but possible and many of us have connected on it numerous times. Drawing one card to ‘AKQ5’, it’s impossible to end up with a royal flush this time. The difference in royal cycles between 9/6 Jacks and 8/5 Bonus is fairly small. There are actually numerous relatively minor strategic changes between the games where sometimes the royals come out more frequently in one game and sometimes the other. On a hands like Ah Qs Ts 8c 3d, for example, in Jacks or Better you can get a royal because sometimes you hold ‘QT’ and draw three cards. In Bonus Poker you always hold AQ on this hands and cannot get the royal. On the other hand, on hands like Jc 8d 4s 5s 7s, it’s possible to get the royal flush in Bonus Poker because you hold the jack by itself but not possible in Jacks or Better because you hold ‘457’ on such a hand. Many players, of course, play both games the same, and in that case the royal flush cycle is the same for both games. I’ve had many questions concerning whether this 40,000-hand royal flush cycle is for the game, the machine (in the case of a multi-game machine), or the player? The answer is “none of the above.” Surprisingly, the answer is also “all of the above.” What a royal cycle of 40,000 hands means that on the NEXT hand you play, the odds are 1 in 40,000 that you’ll score a royal flush. If the machine managed to give out three royals in the past half hour, the odds are 1 in 40,000 that the next hand will also be a royal. If the machine hasn’t yielded a royal for 200,000 hands that still doesn’t change the odds of 1 in 40,000 for the next hand. Players who switch machines, or games on the same machine, or denominations do nothing to the 1 in 40,000 odds. Well, actually, if they switch to 9/7 Double Bonus they have changed the odds to 1 in 48,035. If players move from a machine because it is very cold, they are not changing the royal cycle. If players move from a machine because it is very hot, they are not changing the royal cycle. If players walk about their chair three times and place a pumpkin on their heads, they STILL are not changing the royal cycle. For most purposes, knowing the exact length of a royal cycle is useless information, as is knowing when a particular machine has hit last. Yet we will always have superstitious players who want to have this information. Inquiring minds want to know! And there will frequently be change attendants who will provide you with information on when machines hit so that if you act on their information and end up doing well, you might “remember” who gave you the “useful advice.” I once knew a slot director who told me that he once displayed very visible up-to-date information on the number of royal flushes each machine had produced since the first of the year. Some players would intentionally pick out the machines that had paid relatively few royal flushes, figuring these machines were “due.” Other players would intentionally pick out the machines that had paid relatively more royals because these machines were “luckier.” The slot director believed that anyone acting on useless information was doing so to their own detriment, so he gladly provided the information to assist players in messing themselves up. My own belief on this is that the slot director was a very smart man. Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
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Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature - Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up - Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 You Use To Be Such a Cheapskate - August 31, 2008 Is This a Good Promotion? Part 1 - September 7, 2008 Is This a Good Video Poker Promotion? Part 2 - September 14, 2008 More Video Poker Fallacies - September 21, 2008 Not All Proposals Should be Accepted - September 28, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 1 of 2 - October 5, 2008 An Opportunity Too Good to Pass Up Part 2 - October 12, 2008 Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part 1 of 2 - October 19, 2008 Predicting Future Video Poker Reulsts - Part 2 of 2 - October 26, 2008 Moving Up in Denomination - Part 1 of 2 - November 2, 2008 Moving Up in Video Poker Denomination - Part 2 of 2 - November 9, 2008 A Letter from a Non-Believer - Part 1 of 2 - November 16, 2008 A Letter Froma VP Non-Believer - Part 2 of 2 - November 23, 2008 If You're Going to Steal From Me... - November 30, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 1 of 2 - December 7, 2008 A General Look at Progressives - Part 2 of 2 - December 14, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 1 of 2 - December 21, 2008 Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? - Part 2 of 2 - December 28, 2008 Shirley Wins a Cruise - January 4, 2009 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday January 11, 2009. |
