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Dancer's Answers

We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers:

Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page
May 1, 2008

Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008

Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008

Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008

Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008

Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008

Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008

A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008

Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008

When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008

Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008

Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008

One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008

Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008

Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008

Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008

When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008

I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008

Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008

Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008

Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008

How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008

Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008

Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008

Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008

What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008

A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008

Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008

Testing Matters - November 13, 2008

An Easy Yet Important Quick Quad Puzzler - November 20, 2008

Some Quick Quad Mathematics - November 27, 2008

Barona Improves its Video Poker - December 4, 2008

An Interesting Quick Quads Puzzle - December 11, 2008

Shirley Plays Suduku - December 18, 2008

How Often Does One Time in 360 Occur? - December 25, 2008

Earning a Free Cruise - January 1, 2008

Next Dancer's Answers column coming on January 8, 2009!

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Free Video Poker Classes with Bob Dancer!

Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part II of II

Along with last week’s column, this originally ran in December 1999 Casino Player.

So now we have a percentage return. Let's say 100.5%, for example. How do we turn this number into "dollars per hour"? The first thing you need to do is to estimate how fast you play. I use 600 hands per hour for my calculations. I know that I play some games faster than this and some games slower, but this is what I use. 600 hands per hour is $750 per hour at quarters (600 times $1.25 per hand), $3,000 per hour at dollars and $15,000 per hour at $5. A half percent advantage comes out $3.75, $15 or $75 per hour for the three denominations we listed. I assume I play twice as many hands on Triple Play machines as I do on single play machines. That is, for dollar Triple Play I play $6,000 through the machines per hour rather than $3,000. A half percent advantage on this game is worth $30 per hour.

Promotions may also be calculated on a dollar per hour basis, but this is frequently a big guess. Some of them may be calculated easily. For example, if 7777 pays double, this is easily calculated by computer. If the slot club returns .25% in cash, it's easy to calculate the value of double points.

Some promotions are more difficult to calculate. For example, if you get a drawing ticket for something, the exact value of this ticket is extremely hard to calculate --- but I'll have a go at it next month. Until then, generally speaking, promotions add value to a game, and double points are always more valuable than single points at the same casino. But, of course, double points at Casino A may be significantly less valuable than single points at Casino B.

So add it all up. The game (multiplied by your accuracy factor) + slot club benefits + promotions. Once you have that number (say it is 100.6%), you subtract 100% from it and multiply it by the dollars in play per hour. For quarters this is (100.6% - 100%) x $750 = $4.50 per hour.

If this number is less than 100%, you might ask yourself why you are playing? If playing is fun and exciting and you are willing to lose a few hundred dollars (or thousands or tens of thousands), great! Casinos will treat you very nicely while they extract this money. But if your goal is to win, you must avoid playing games where the casino has the edge.

The most important part of this equation is the game itself. If you are playing 8-5 Double Double Bonus (which returns 96.8% when played perfectly, but nobody plays it that well. Anybody knowledgeable enough to play this game well would know enough to leave it alone), you have no chance to have a good result in the long run. You might hit your four aces with a kicker and have a good score today. This hand comes around every 16,200 hands or so (i.e. every 27 hours on average), but if you add up all of your "todays", your score for this game will certainly be negative.

Video poker is a gambling game where, for the most part, you get what you deserve. Most people who have has played over 100 hours lifetime have played long enough for the odds to work themselves out pretty well. They'll have good days and bad days, but the results even out. And it is also a game where one result will not change your life. With the possible exception of a 50,000 coin sequential royal, the jackpots just aren't big enough. You will have days where you lose half of a royal. The only way to win at this game long run is to grind it out. Being dealt a royal flush is just not going to make that much difference. Go ahead and hope for it if you like, but once you get it you'll just want another one. Nobody ever gets enough of these. You hear people say things like "if I could just get even, I could die happy!" Don't believe them! Whatever anybody's current score is, you can be certain that they want a little more.

That's it for this month. Until next time, go out and hit a royal flush.

Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

Click here to visit River Belle Casino and play video poker games, including Jacks or Better and Deuces Wild.

Classic Dancer

We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing.

Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008

More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008

Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008

Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008

The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008

The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008

Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008

Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008

Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008

One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008

Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008

High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008