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Dancer's Answers

We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers:

Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page
May 1, 2008

Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008

Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008

Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008

Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008

Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008

Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008

A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008

Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008

When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008

Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008

Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008

One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008

Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008

Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008

Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008

When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008

I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008

Las Vegas Do It Different - September 4, 2008

Figuring the worth when there are Multiple Progressives - September 11, 2008

Which is the Better Play? - September 18, 2008

How Much is Too Much? - September 25, 2008

Evaluating a Promotion - October 2, 2008

Sometimes the Jack, Sometimes Ace-Jack, Never the Ace by Itself - October 9, 2008

Why I Don't Play Poker - October 16, 2008

What is a Royal Flush Cycle? - October 23, 2008

A Logical Puzzler - October 30, 2008

Another Look at Changing Machines - November 6, 2008

Testing Matters - November 13, 2008

An Easy Yet Important Quick Quad Puzzler - November 20, 2008

Some Quick Quad Mathematics - November 27, 2008

Barona Improves its Video Poker - December 4, 2008

An Interesting Quick Quads Puzzle - December 11, 2008

Shirley Plays Suduku - December 18, 2008

How Often Does One Time in 360 Occur? - December 25, 2008

Earning a Free Cruise - January 1, 2008

Next Dancer's Answers column coming on January 8, 2009!

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Predicting Your Future Results at Video Poker - Part I of II

This and next week’s column originally ran as a single article in December 1999 Casino Player. I referenced “Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker,” which I was promoting at the time. Today I’d reference “Video Poker for Winners,” which is a much better product. For the task discussed in this article, the two products are equivalent.

In a recent article, I said that your decisions to play or not to play should be based upon your CALCULATIONS for what WILL HAPPEN, not your EXPERIENCE of what DID HAPPEN. Another way to say this is that we act as though we are always in the LONG RUN and do not pay much attention to SHORT RUN swings.

Let me phrase it differently. Assume we calculate that in the next 500 hours of play our net score will be +$1,500. We conclude, then, that this is a $3 per hour opportunity. (Don't give up your day job!) We ASSUME, going in, that EVERY hour will return $3. Strangely, we KNOW that our actual results will vary all over the place. Some hours we will lose $200 and others we might win $1000. So why ASSUME something that we KNOW won't come true?

We make this assumption in order to help us decide which game to play. If we calculate that one of our choices is a $7 per hour loser and the other is a $3 per hour winner, to me the choice is easy. To my way of thinking, if we ALWAYS go with one of the games that has the highest average return, we will end up just fine. If we NEVER go with any game that has a negative return, our net score will end up positive.

The philosophy behind it is one thing, but I frequently get asked about how to make this calculation. That's the purpose of this month's column. To discuss how you determine how much a game is worth.

First of all, you need to evaluate the game itself. If it's a common game, you can probably find the return for the game in writings. For example, 9/6 Jacks or Better returns 99.54% It doesn't matter much which author you read. We all agree on the value of the game.

If you cannot find the game listed anywhere, you'll need to calculate it for yourself. For this you need a computer. If you do not have one, get one! Anybody who gambles more than fifty hours a year can probably save enough using a computer to pay for one! Anybody who says they cannot afford a computer but can afford to gamble is fooling themselves.

My program, Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker, will give you the return for the vast majority of all video poker games. Any that come out below 99% should probably be ignored by anybody who wants a realistic chance at winning. So step 1 is to determine the "perfect play value" of the game.

Step 2 is to evaluate your personal "error rate" factor. Play 200 hands or so and check your results. If you play at the 100% level, great! If you play at the 95% level, you're probably not ready to invest real money. Keep practicing until you regularly get above 99% accuracy. You may want to invest in strategy cards or reports to help you play better, but if you want to win you have to do whatever it takes to learn to play well. There is no practical difference between playing a 98% game at a perfect level and playing a 100% game at a 98% level.

Step 3 is to evaluate the slot club. I try to assign a dollar value to the slot club benefits. It's easy when the slot club returns cash. The formula is to divide the number by the number of dollars it takes to earn one point and then divide that by the number of points it takes to earn one dollar in cash back. For example, if it takes $2 to earn one point and 200 points to earn a dollar in cash back, you take 1 and divide it by 2 and divide that by 200. You end up with .0025, which is .25%. If the game returned 99.54% and the slot club returned .25%, you now have a game worth 99.79% --- as long as you play perfectly. Of course this is still not a good enough game to play (in my opinion). If the game doesn't return over 100%, I'd rather stay home and read a book!

A lot of a slot club is intangible, but it is useful to try to quantify it. Free rooms are of real value if you are from out of town. Free meals are also important. I don't calculate retail price. I use what I would have been willing to pay for something reasonably similar if I didn't get it comped. For example, even if I get a $100 meal for two comped, I credit it at about $20, because that's the amount I would willingly spend on dinner.

Continued next week

Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

Click here to visit River Belle Casino and play video poker games, including Jacks or Better and Deuces Wild.

Classic Dancer

We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing.

Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008

More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008

Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008

Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008

The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008

The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008

Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008

Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008

Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008

One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008

Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008

High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008