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Dancer's Answers We publish a brand-new video poker article from Bob Dancer every Thursday in this section. These columns are called "Dancer's Answers". Click on any of the links below for more Dancer's Answers: Bob Dancer Articles - Main Page Vicksburg Video Poker - May 8, 2008 Vicksburg, MS Video Poker - Part 2 - May 15, 2008 Vicksburg Casino Video Poker - Part 3 - May 22, 2008 Common Deuces Wild Mistakes – Juan or the Other – May 29, 2008 Figuring Out Quick Quads - June 5, 2008 Breaking Full Houses in Quick Quads - June 12, 2008 A Quick Quads Puzzler - June 19, 2008 Let’s Go Scouting - June 26, 2008 When You're Not Sure of the Game - July 3, 2008 Can it be Right to Play Hunches - July 10, 2008 Good Hearted Woman in Love With a Good Timin’ Man - July 17, 2008 One-Way Versus Two-Way Straight Penalties - July 24, 2008 Effectual versus Ineffectual Straight Penalties - July 31, 2008 Unusual Dealt Royals - August 7, 2008 Learning from a Horse Handicapper - August 14, 2008 When Bad Is Good - August 21, 2008 I Live For These Moments - August 28, 2008 Next Dancer's Answers column coming on September 4, 2008! |
Author's note: This was originally published in Casino Player,
November 1997. The machine described at the Orleans is long gone, as is
the mentioned dollar version of Full Pay Deuces Wild.. I now use better
estimates for bankroll calculation than I did back then. Otherwise the
advice provided is still valid.
Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video PokerI play a lot of video poker. During football season, I take Sundays off to become a NFL couch potato. Last November, I had a two weeks period with the following (rounded off) results: Monday -$ 700 Tuesday + 1,100 Wednesday + 1,300 Thursday - 600 Friday - 400 Saturday - 900 Sunday no play
Monday - 1,200 Tuesday + 3,800 Wednesday - 500 Thursday - 700 Friday - 400 Saturday + 700 Sunday no play
Net Results: 4 plus days totaling $6,900 8 minus days totaling 5,400 Total +1,500 I was plus $1500 for those two weeks. I’ve had better results. I’ve had worse. If I hadn’t hit the royal on the second Tuesday, my results would have been very sad indeed. Notice also that I lost twice as often as I won. This is very typical. For the year, about 35% of my sessions were winners. Does this mean that I played well on four days and played badly on the other eight? No, of course not. I played very close to computer-perfect for that entire period. I was always playing on machines where (including the slot club) I had at least a ¾ of a percent edge. Video poker players have many streaks like this. The size of these results is typical for dollar players playing three or four hours a day. Quarter and nickel players will have smaller numbers for their daily scores, but will likewise have more days they lose than when they win. When you draw one card to three aces, you’re going to connect once every 23½ times. On average. Some days, you hit your quads a lot more than that. Some days, you won’t hit a one. Drawing two cards to AKQ of spades will connect on the royal once every 1,081 times. You might get twenty such draws a day. It’s always a nice surprise when the royal pops out. Just because you’re losing today doesn’t mean you’re playing badly. This is a very important concept to remember. Conversely, just because you’re winning today doesn’t mean you’re playing well. You may believe that you can win more often than you lose. If you can, you’ll be the only one who can. I know dozens of top-rank players. All of them lose more often than they win. There are three important “secrets” to long-term winning. First, never make any bet where you don’t have the advantage. Second, know how to play any game close to perfectly before you play at all. And third, know and accept that you are going to lose more often than you are going to win. I’ll write about the first two of these secrets at some other time. Today I want to concentrate on knowing and accepting that you are going to lose. It might strike you as strange that I consider knowing you will lose as being a major secret to winning. Let me give you three reasons why I believe this is true. One reason this knowledge is so important is that it prevents “steaming”. Steaming occurs to many people when they are losing. It is the process of playing wildly in order to catch up before they leave for the day. These people are unwilling to go home a small loser. They will either catch up, or get buried. For example, assume you were playing the standard Vegas version of deuces wild for dollars, and you were dealt two deuces, the 6 and 7 of hearts, and the A of spades. The correct play (no matter what your current score is) is to hold 2267. Some people decide that they need four deuces (worth $1000) to catch up, so they play 22. This play is worth 45¢ less than the correct play. Other people might play 22A in order to go for a wild royal. This is worth a full $2.74 less than the correct play. It is easy to see that occasionally they will connect, but usually they will end up losing more money. Knowing that losing is a normal, expected result reduces this steaming proclivity. A second reason concerns your health. Many people have an obsessive hatred of losing. They expect to win, and when they don’t they get physically ill. They frequently “cure” this problem by undertaking destructive behavior: alcohol, drugs, food, or being very unpleasant to others. Knowing that you will lose more often than you will win helps you to keep this in perspective. A third reason why it’s important to know you will lose more often than you win is for reasons of bankroll. You need to have money set aside for these negative swings. They definitely will happen. If you always expect to win, you will find yourself broke. Knowledgeable players keep a bankroll of at least three royal flushes (i.e. $3,000 if you play for quarters --- $12,000 if you play for dollars). If you keep losing in mind, you’ll better be able to resist spending your jackpots. To handle the money swings inherent at video poker, the psychologically healthiest players reach the conclusion that “today’s score doesn’t matter.” If you hit a royal, fine. If you lose a thousand, fine. When playing sports, attitude makes a big difference in whether or not you win. It is common to hear variations on the theme of “show me a good loser, and I’ll show you a loser”. This intuitively makes sense to all of us. It is easy to see how your frame of mind can affect the way you throw a pass, hit a baseball, or shoot a basket. So why I am telling you the exact opposite? Because your attitude has nothing to do with what cards you draw at video poker. Let’s assume you have drawn Ah Kh Jh Th 5s. Everybody knows you should throw away the 5 and go for the royal. Even though your decision is being based upon the five cards you see, the random number generator selected ten cards at the same time. By the time you have seen the five cards, the card you will draw has been predetermined. Your state of mind has nothing to do with it. You can cross your fingers if you like. You can pray. You can curse. You can throw up for that matter. That card has already been selected. Your attitude has nothing to do with what card the machine gives you. Accepting that you are going to lose most sessions and believing that today’s score doesn’t matter are important. But this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t play your best. Selecting the right game to play requires a lot of skill. Taking the time to learn to play each hand correctly requires a lot of effort. Playing every according to the way you’ve learned, no matter what your score, takes a lot of discipline. There is a book that has nothing to do with gambling that very elegantly summarizes what I am trying to say. The book is by Robert Fulghum, and is called “All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten.” (Villard Books, New York, 1989) In one of his very short chapters he talks of an insurance broker who looks at life as through it were a gambling game. The last three “principles” in this insurance broker’s philosophy are as follows. About winning: It isn’t important. What really counts is how you play the game. About losing: It isn’t important. What really counts is how you play the game. About playing the game: Play to win! Bob Dancer is America's best-known video poker writer and teacher. He has a variety of "how to play better video poker" products, including the software "Video Poker for Winners," Winner's Guides, strategy cards, his autobiography Million Dollar Video Poker, and his two novels, including Sex, Lies, and Video Poker. Dancer's products may be ordered at www.bobdancer.com or by telephone at 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.
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Classic Dancer We republish a classic Bob Dancer article every Sunday - often these articles are updated with new insights from Bob Dancer, the master of video poker writing. Video Poker Questions and Answers - May 4, 2008 More Answers to Questions About Video Poker Machines - May 11, 2008 Losing is a Major Part of Winning at Video Poker - May 18, 2008 Video Poker VS Blackjack - May 25, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 1 - June 1, 2008 The Art of Tipping Slot Personnel - Part 2 - June 8, 2008 Putting Your Ducks In a Row - June 15, 2008 Luck and Skill in Video Poker - June 22, 2008 Strategy Adjustments in Video Poker - June 29, 2008 One Coin vs Five Coin - July 6, 2008 Video Poker Progressives - July 13, 2008 High Pairs versus Three Cards to a Rolal in Kings or Better Joker Wild - July 20, 2008 The Double Up Feature -- Does It Ever Make Sense? - Part 1 - July 27, 2008 Doubling Up -- Does it Ever Make Sense? - Part 2 - August 3, 2008 Did I Quit at the Right Time? - August 10, 2008 Money Management: What Does and Doesn't Work - August 17, 2008 "I'm Playing The Wrong Game" and Other Video Poker Fallacies - August 24, 2008 More Classic Dancer coming Sunday August 31, 2008. |
